Media Professional Dr. Magdy Kamel ElHawary Writes
In a world filled with geopolitical tensions and escalating confrontations among major powers, the most dangerous question remains: who will ignite the second round of war between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other?
The situation is no longer مجرد political disagreement or media rhetoric. It has evolved into an open clash of wills, driven by deep strategic interests that go beyond regional boundaries and extend toward reshaping the global order.
Iran, which has strengthened its regional influence through multiple channels across the Middle East, sees itself in a position of power—especially with its control over sensitive pressure points such as the Strait of Hormuz. This vital passage is a lifeline for global oil supplies, and any disruption could trigger a worldwide economic crisis and provoke direct military responses from major powers.
On the other hand, the United States and Israel view Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat rather than a negotiable political issue. Any significant advancement in this program could be met with a preemptive strike, potentially igniting a full-scale confrontation in an instant.
However, the most complex reality is that wars are not always started by deliberate decisions. A limited attack, an assassination, or even a miscalculation could spark a chain reaction. This is where the real danger lies—events can rapidly escalate from containment to full-scale conflict.
Regional players are also deeply involved. Some may see war as an opportunity to rearrange their positions or settle longstanding disputes, increasing the likelihood of a broader escalation.
The most likely scenario is not an immediate all-out war, but rather a gradual escalation: mutual strikes, proxy conflicts, cyber warfare, and targeted attacks on strategic interests across the region. Yet such escalation can spiral out of control at any moment, leading to direct confrontation.
The key question remains: is anyone truly seeking to avoid war, or is everyone quietly preparing for it?
In my view, the world stands on the edge of a decisive moment. The decision may not lie in the hands of a single actor, but rather in a complex interaction of forces, each pushing toward its own interests without fully grasping the scale of the potential catastrophe.
Ultimately, the question is not only who will ignite the war—but whether it can be contained once it begins.
For now, the answer remains uncertain… and perhaps deeply alarming.
